Kalshi Posts Record $3.9B Volume Week, Extends Lead Over Polymarket as Parlays Surge

Weekly notional quantity bounced again sharply after final week’s post-Masters pullback, with the 2 main prediction markets combining for $5.9B in weekly notional quantity for the week of April 20, in line with DeFi Rate’s prediction markets volume tracker. Kalshi posted $3.91B, up 27.8% week over week from $3.06B, whereas Polymarket reached $1.96B, up ~4% WoW from $2.04B, a modest restoration in comparison with Kalshi’s surge.

The divergence pushed Kalshi’s quantity lead over Polymarket to almost $2B, its widest margin in latest historical past. Kalshi now instructions 67% of mixed Kalshi+Polymarket weekly notional quantity. The NFL Draft (April 23–25), NBA first-round playoff motion, and FOMC anticipation constructing into the April 28–29 assembly all contributed. Mostly, we’re seeing the consequences of Kalshi’s sports activities (and parlay) dominance driving income divergence in sports-heavy weeks.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Head to Head

Kalshi’s weekly quantity is now up ~33% over six weeks ($2.93B to $3.91B) whereas Polymarket is down ~16% ($2.34B to $1.96B) over the identical interval. Kalshi continues to outpace Polymarket on a weekly foundation, and has now crossed $3B in 4 of the final six weeks.

The final time Polymarket’s notional quantity edged out Kalshi was the week of Oct. 13, 2025 when totals have been $1.06B to $950.4M, in line with Dune tracking. Just two months earlier, within the week of Jan. 26, the quantity distinction between the 2 was simply $112.3M.

On transactions, Kalshi edged forward for the primary time within the tracked interval with 20.2M to Polymarket’s 19.2M. Six weeks in the past, Polymarket held a 25% transaction lead. The reversal marks a notable shift: Kalshi is now profitable on each quantity and commerce depend, although the 2 stay shut on transactions.

Kalshi classes and key quantity drivers

Kalshi’s sports activities + exotics mixed got here in at $3.32B (84.9% of whole), up from $2.52B the prior week. Exotics (Kalshi “combos” that perform like parlays) hit a brand new high of $412.5M, making up 10.6% of Kalshi’s whole quantity and surpassing Crypto ($330.2M, 8.5%) as the No. 2 class for the second straight week. Crypto itself was flat WoW, going from $330.1M to $330.2M. Politics ticked as much as $35.6M whereas Economics ($7.7M) and Mentions ($12.9M) remained regular.

Other contains: Science and Technology ($3.8M), Companies ($2.0M), Social ($522K), World ($311K), and Other ($94K).

Exotics (parlays) turning into a Kalshi staple

Exotics’ 10.6% share final week was second solely to varsity basketball championship week (March 2), since Dune started monitoring the class in late February. That’s up from $266M (8.7%) the prior week and practically triple the $152M (5.6%) recorded the week of February 23. The class has held above 7.5% each week since early March, with this week’s surge, pushed by NBA playoff parlays and NFL Draft combo markets, pushing it to a brand new peak in each greenback phrases and share of whole quantity. Exotics is starting to frequently outpace Crypto as Kalshi’s #2 class.

Kalshi’s quantity leaderboard this week was headlined by NBA playoffs, in line with DeFi Rate quantity monitoring. The Pro Basketball Champion market (OKC Thunder main at 53%) topped the chart at $5.4M weekly quantity however $74.9M open curiosity, the only largest open curiosity (OI) place on the platform. Stanley Cup Champion ($23.2M OI), 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee ($67.1M OI), and Pro Baseball Champion ($11.3M OI) spherical out the high-OI markets. The Fed decision in April is basically locked (keep charge at over 99%), however nonetheless generated $1.1M in weekly quantity and $14.3M in open curiosity.

Polymarket class breakdown and key quantity drivers

Polymarket’s class combine was headlined by a Trump market revival, surging to $222.5M (11.3% of quantity) after collapsing to $95.9M the prior week, greater than doubling WoW as short-dated Trump speech and information markets regained traction. Sports held the highest slot at $908M (46.3%), led by the 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner market ($71M all-time quantity, France main at 17%) and NBA championship betting. Crypto got here in at $429M (21.8%), rebounding solidly from the prior week. Politics reached $298M (15.2%), sustained by 2028 nominee markets (led by Newsom, Vance) and the Peru presidential race. Weather ($42.5M), Culture ($24.2M), Economy ($19.1M), and Tech ($16.8M) rounded out the mid-tier, with Tech buoyed partly by weekly Elon Musk tweet-count markets.

The distinction with Kalshi stays stark: Polymarket’s quantity is unfold throughout a much wider class combine, whereas Kalshi is more and more concentrated in Sports and Exotics, with these two classes alone accounting for 84.9% of Kalshi’s whole final week in comparison with 46.3% sports activities share for Polymarket.

Fees and platform snapshot

Polymarket charges elevated ~14% WoW to $8.11M for the week (up from $7.13M the prior week), with Polymarket capturing the overwhelming majority of tracked payment income. The DeFi Rate weekly snapshot for the week of April 20 exhibits mixed metrics throughout the sector: $5.9B weekly notional quantity, 358,963 lively markets (Kalshi 311,234 / Polymarket 46,790), 39.4M transactions, and $1.1B open curiosity (Kalshi $610.8M / Polymarket $509.5M).

Trading occasions to observe

As April involves a detailed, the sports activities calendar is just heating up which is nice information for combos and sports activities quantity at Kalshi. NBA and NHL playoffs are underway, and the World Cup is shortly approaching. The FOMC choice market will quickly shut, however buying and selling will quickly spike once more for the subsequent fed charge choice June 16-17. Election buying and selling curiosity can also be already on the rise, not only for 2026 midterm markets but in addition for the 2028 presidential election. And one other election in Peru is gaining severe curiosity amongst merchants, particularly on the worldwide Polymarket platform.

Markets we’re watching:

• FOMC choice (April 28–29): Markets are locked at 99–100% for no change, however high open curiosity on each platforms means a shock would transfer quantity sharply.
• NBA playoffs: Multiple first-round sequence in progress; OKC Thunder leads each Kalshi and Polymarket champion markets at 53%.
• 2026 FIFA World Cup (July): Already Polymarket’s #2 lively market by quantity at $71M; will proceed to construct.
• Peru Presidential Election (June 6): Keiko Fujimori main at 63% on Polymarket ($8.6M quantity, $2.8M OI); lively on Kalshi as properly.
• 2028 presidential nominee markets: Gavin Newsom (26% Polymarket, 25% Kalshi) and JD Vance (39% Polymarket, 38% Kalshi) are among the many highest open-interest markets on each platforms.

Expect Kalshi to keep up a large lead over Polymarket via the NBA playoffs, at the very least, with a $4B week properly inside attain for the volume-leading prediction market platform.

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