Yardeni Says Analysts Still See S&P 500 Earnings Near $500 Per Share by 2028

Wall Street analysts have largely held their S&P 500 earnings forecasts, Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni mentioned. For 2028, they nonetheless sit close to $500 per share, even after Alphabet and Intel bought off.

However, Yardeni’s personal 2028 forecast is $450, about 9% under the $493 consensus he cited in an October 24 notice. S&P 500 holders are uncovered to revenue progress that he considers too bullish.

Why Are S&P 500 Earnings Not Lifting the Index?

Yardeni made the case in an interview forward of the US midterm elections. He mentioned weekly consensus estimates stayed roughly flat within the week of October 26. Analysts stay strongly bullish on 2027 and 2028, he added.

Meanwhile, the index has trailed these earnings, based mostly on figures within the note. Forward earnings per share, a gauge of anticipated revenue over 12 months, was up 31% this yr. At that time, the S&P 500 had gained 11.4%.

As a outcome, the index’s ahead price-to-earnings a number of, which costs shares towards anticipated revenue, fell 13.5% this yr. Yardeni’s 7,900 year-end target applies a a number of of 18.6 to a $425 forecast for 2027 earnings.

Analysts’ 2027 consensus of $424.56 sits nearly precisely on that forecast. He lower that a number of from 19.8 in September, when he moved his earlier 8,400 target to mid-2027.

Can AI Credit Stress Break the 7,900 Call?

Estimates held by a late-October Nasdaq-100 rout that erased roughly $2 trillion of market worth. Alphabet had its worst session on file, and Intel fell practically 29% in someday.

Yardeni says bond traders are policing AI debtors and calls the development wholesome. His notice cites wider credit score default swap spreads, a gauge of default threat, at Oracle and AI cloud supplier CoreWeave.

In addition, he mentioned hyperscalers, the biggest cloud suppliers, have data-center commitments and backlogs already locked in.

Yardeni mentioned the bonds of AI firms look higher positioned than their shares. In his view, it stays unclear when the spending will produce earnings.

That leaves his 7,900 name resting on the a number of, since 2027 earnings already match consensus. Falling bond yields would ease that strain, whereas rising AI borrowing prices may push 2028 estimates decrease first.

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